Nomura warning: in extreme cases, the Japanese silver or three consecutive interest increases, and the arbitrage of the yen spreads in flat tides

On 4 September, Central Bank of Japan policy was expected to move rapidly. Yujiro Goto, the chief of Japanese foreign exchange strategy for Nomura, stated that, if the trend towards a weak yen continued to develop at 160, the Bank could not only raise interest rates in September, but could also take action in October and December. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Ito Yujiro stated that the 25 basis points of interest increase this month “looks reasonable” and that if the yen continues to be weak and moves towards 160, “a consecutive increase in October and December is possible”. This judgement means that the Central Bank of Japan may move from a more cautious policy normalization rhythm to a faster austerity path. If the three consecutive hikes become a reality, it would be an extremely radical policy shift for the Bank of Japan, which has been dealing with deflation for most of the past three decades and has maintained borrowing costs at near zero over the long term. The market has now noticeably raised the bet on interest rates. The overnight index has been fully priced at 25 basis points in September at the Bank of Japan, and at another rate by January next year. The Governor of the Central Bank of Japan, Shida and Makoto, had suggested that the Bank might take action at the forthcoming meeting; and one of the hawks ' most deliberative members, Takada, had not ruled out the possibility of a substantial increase in and a continuous increase。