Joao Wedson: ETF performance in emerging markets or presuppressing a better risk margin for the US share

According to analyst Joao Wedson, the ETF of the Ishares MSCI emerging market usually weakens before S&P 500 begins to weaken. He shared the phenomenon and referred to historical data on its annual performance. When the year-on-year change exceeds a certain threshold, it tends to foreshadow an important top of S&P 500 or the accompanying market correction. This is closely related to the behaviour of emerging markets, which are generally more sensitive to changes in global liquidity, the United States dollar, interest rates, capital flows and risk preferences. The current year-to-year reading is once again above the historical threshold, and although this does not guarantee that S&P 500 has reached the final top, it is a warning that cannot be ignored. Emerging markets may again send early signals that risk preferences are approaching an important turning point。