Central Bank of Canada: Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to about $70 by 2027

On 15 July, the Central Bank of Canada stated that one of the major risks of rising inflation was that firms might shift the cost of inputs to consumers, thus creating new price pressures. It was also concerned that its estimates of productivity might be “lower than previously assumed”, which would mean a smaller shortfall in economic output and greater inflationary pressure. The downside risks of inflation listed by the Central Bank of Canada include the likely tightening of the global financial environment and weak-than-expected domestic economic recovery. The Central Bank of Canada expects Brent crude oil prices to decline to about $70 by 2027, noting that the outlook for oil prices is highly uncertain. This projection is based on the futures price curve of 9 July, which is slightly lower than the forecast for April. Policymakers have also revised their export outlook upwards, in part because of the increase in “energy-related activities”。