Kimi K3 impact Anthropic valuation projection

On 19 July, it was projected that on the market Polymucket, Anthropic ' s probability of reaching $1.5 trillion by the end of the year had declined significantly. Polymarket linked this change to the covert issue of KimiK3 and stated that Anthropic ' s valuation was expected to be affected. On 17 July, traders assumed that the probability of touching the $1.5 trillion valuation during the year of Anthropic was about 77 per cent; by 18 July, that figure had dropped to 67 per cent, a decline of about 10 to 11 percentage points in one day. Market sentiment changed after KimiK3 was released. It is important to note that the decline is the projected contract price in the market, not the 11 per cent decline in the real valuation of Anthropic. The contract was betted on whether the Anthropic valuation could reach or exceed $1.5 trillion by 31 December 2026, and the probability changes only reflected the expectations of the participants in the transaction for that purpose. Anthropic ' s most recent open financing took place on 28 May, completing the $65 billion H round of financing, with a post-investment valuation of $965 billion. To meet the target of $1.5 trillion set by the Polymark contract, its valuation would require an additional $53.5 billion, an increase of over 55 per cent。