HSBC: IF THE AI CYCLE COOLS GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH OR SLOWS DOWN

On 20 July, HSBC economists stated in a report that global trade growth could slow if AI-related demand subsided. They noted that global trade remained closely linked to the AI cycle and that, in nominal terms, related commodities contributed to 80 per cent of global export growth. These commodities account for about 80 per cent of Taiwan ' s total exports and 27 per cent of United States imports. They noted that export performance was weak after the removal of scientific and technological products, and that growth in other categories of exports had been largely stagnant since 2024. In addition, AI is supporting the growth of trade in services. However, they believe that, according to the capital expenditure projections of the world ' s leading super-massive cloud service providers, the AI boom is expected to continue for some time, even if next year ' s investment growth slows. Kim Xian