Moo: In the second half of the year, the U.S. share or a limited increase of four risks threatens to disrupt the market

On 21 July, a research team led by Zahin Ov, a Senior Fellow at Morgan Chase, wrote that the 500 index could be “more weak” in relation to the international stock market for the remainder of 2026. The report states: “We expect the United States share to rise from its current level, but the return by the end of the year is unlikely to reach the level of the first half of 2026”. The following are some of the main factors that the Bank believes will affect the market during the remainder of 2026: high volatility of changes in bond market structures, high inflation and interest rates, high dissipation to trigger negative feedback, and AI disturbance of employment。