The Fed Voicescope: July's special session has been the hardest to guess in recent years

On July 23, Nick Timiraos local time wrote that the July policy meeting of the Fed would be the most unpredictable in recent years. The renewed rise in oil prices, the rise in United States tariff policy risks and the shift of some officials to support interest rates have challenged the consensus to maintain interest rates unchanged. The market generally anticipated that the Federal Reserve would continue to maintain policy interest rates at the Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC) meeting from 28 to 29 July, with current interest rates ranging from 3.50 to 3.75 per cent. The outcome of the meeting did not, however, mean the end of internal controversy, and some officials had begun to pave the way for further interest rates this year. At the previous meeting, there had been a clear disagreement among 18 Federal Reserve officials as to whether there was a need for interest rate hike this year, half of which was expected to require interest rate hikes, while the other half considered that no adjustment was needed. Jonathan Pingle, the Chief Economist of the United States Bank, said that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh could be a key figure in the direction of policy. (WSJ)