United States military operations remain relatively limited but highly susceptible to miscalculation

Abbas Aslani, a senior researcher at the Middle East Strategic Research Centre, based in Tehran, stated that the fatal strike launched by the United States was counter to Iran's insistence on the “new security arrangements” in the Strait of Hormuz. He indicated that Trump had initially viewed the interim agreement as a “release mechanism” to avoid a larger war with Iran. According to Aslani, “he is under pressure from domestic public opinion, as well as from the Israeli side, which may have been the reason why he took such action to make up for himself”. As the situation becomes more complex, the window for diplomatic solutions is shrinking. He noted that Iran viewed these strikes as an attempt to weaken its control over the Strait of Hormuz, but that despite military pressure, the Tehran side maintained its position. According to Aslani, “These recent aggressive actions are relatively limited in timing, scope and scale... Perhaps the United States is not willing to ignite a keg of gunpowder for regional conflicts”. However, the situation remains extremely volatile. “This is tantamount to playing with fire, and any miscalculation could lead to a situation out of control, which could lead to a regional war. Although that is not yet the case, it is highly likely that this will happen.” Kim Xian