Goldman Sachs believes that oil prices rise to risk at an extreme or $120

ON 27 JULY, BRENT'S CRUDE OIL FUTURES RECENTLY PICKED UP, WITH THE MAIN CONTRACT COMING CLOSE TO THE $100 THRESHOLD, INCREASING BY MORE THAN 12 PER CENT A WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE NEWS, THE RISKS OF RED-SEA SHIPPING RE-FERTILIZED IN LATE JULY, SUCCESSIVE HOUTHI ATTACKS ON TRANSIT TANKERS AND A FALL IN PRODUCTION BY MIDDLE EASTERN OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES, AMONG OTHER FACTORS, HAVE LED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES. TO THIS END, THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK, GOLDMAN SACHS, HAS ALSO ISSUED NUMEROUS IN-DEPTH REPORTS ON LARGE COMMODITIES TO DISMANTLE GEO-PRICING PREMIUMS. ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN SACHS, OIL PRICE UPSIDE RISKS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN DOWNSIDE SPACE, AND THE DE-MINING OF STOCKS IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE SUMMER WILL SUPPORT THEIR HIGH-LEVEL OPERATIONS. GOLDMAN SACHS ANALYSED THREE TYPES OF OIL PRICE SCENARIOS: ONE IS A NEUTRAL BASELINE SCENARIO. ASSUMING THAT THE GEOGRAPHICAL SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS EASED, SHIPPING HAS GRADUALLY RESUMED, MAINTAINING “BRUNT CRUDE OIL AT $80 AND WTI CRUDE OIL AT $76” IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2026; AND “BRUNT CRUDE OIL AT $75 AND WTI CRUDE OIL AT $70” THROUGHOUT THE YEAR UNDER NORMAL NAVIGATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN 2027. THE AGENCY MEASURED A GLOBAL EXCESS OF CRUDE OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF 3.2 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2027, WITH A LONG-TERM SURPLUS CRUSHING PRICE HUBS. THE SECOND IS EXTREME UPSWING. IF SHIPPING IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ LASTS UNTIL 2027, THE CRUDE OIL CAPACITY OF THE GULF WILL NOT BE FULLY REPAIRED UNTIL THE END OF 2027, “BRUNT CRUDE OIL IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED $120 IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2026, WITH A STEADY AVERAGE PRICE OF $100 IN 2027”; AND IF THE STRAIT OF JOMAND AND THE SUEZ CANAL ARE SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKED FOR A LONG TIME, OIL PRICES WILL FLOAT AN ADDITIONAL $25 PER BARREL. THREE IS THE BOTTOM LINE. IF GLOBAL SUPPLY IS OVER-ANTICIPATED AND ENERGY DEMAND CONTINUES TO SHRINK, BRENT CRUDE OIL REACHED A LOW OF $60 IN LATE 2027, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW。