Bernstein's going up the gold target for the second half of the year to $4375

ON 10 JULY, BERNSTEIN RAISED THE 2026 GOLD PRICE PROJECTION TO A TARGET OF $4375 PER OUNCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR AND $4533 FOR THE YEAR. ACCORDING TO THE AGENCY, CONTINUED CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S ESTIMATED INTEREST RATE FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL NOT INCREASE AND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR UNDERPINNING THE PRICE. BERNSTEIN PREDICTS THAT THE FED WILL INCREASE INTEREST RATES BY ONLY ONE OR TWO TIMES AT MOST, AND THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITED PRESSURE FOR GOLD ETF OUTFLOWS. BERNSTEIN STATED THAT THE INCREASE IN REAL INTEREST RATES IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2026 HAD LED TO A FALL IN GOLD PRICES FROM $4650 PER OUNCE TO ABOUT $4,000, BUT THAT THERE WAS STILL ROOM FOR GOLD TO RISE AS INTEREST RATES WERE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE AGENCY WARNS THAT IF INFLATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND PROMPTS THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO ADOPT MORE AGGRESSIVE MEASURES TO RAISE INTEREST RATES, IT WILL BE THE MAIN RISK OF RISING GOLD PRICES。