Weeda, Oracle, Alphabet, and so on
On 28 July, the boom in financing generated by the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure was being scrutinized more closely by the bond market. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group show credit default swaps related to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Botten and Weeda (see figure). The CDS has recently risen to their respective record levels, indicating that investors are beginning to demand higher risk compensation. Credit default swaps, also known as CDS, are equivalent to insurance for business debts. The higher the spread, the greater the market perceives the risk of holding related bonds. Oracle is under the most obvious pressure, rising to 215 basis points on Monday of the five-year CDS, well above 144 basis points at the beginning of the year. According to this offer, the cost of providing a one-year guarantee for the Oracle debt of $10 million would be approximately $215,000. The five-year British-Wida CDS peaked at about 82 basis points per year on Monday, representing the largest increase in the volume of related contracts since the start of active trading last November. According to ICE Data Services, this means the purchase of five-year default protections for $10 million for British Vida debt, with an annual payment of approximately $82,000. Alphabet's five-year CDS has reached a record high of 67 basis points on Monday. However, Alphabet's CDS did not start trading until November 2025, so the historical comparison of the so-called “high record” is short. The focus of credit market concern is not the sudden disappearance of artificial intelligence demand, but the mismatch between the size of the investment, the return cycle and the speed of financing. Standard & Poor ' s estimates suggest that capital expenditure in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle could total $737 billion in 2026, well above $261 billion in 2024。
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