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Today · 2026-07-29 · Wed

Kalshi, Polymarket had a preliminary Federal Court injunction and Minnesota ' s forecast market ban was suspended

On 28 July, according to CoinDesk, United States District Court Judge Katherine Menendez ruled at local time on 28 July that Minnesota's state laws criminalizing the forecasting of market operations were likely to violate the Federal Commodity Transactions Act (CEA) and granted preliminary injunctions to Kalshi, Polymucket and the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the implementation of the state's laws. In the judge's view, the projected market contract was structured as a "reversible" product within the scope of the CFTC, federal law had priority over state law, and the three plaintiffs were "probably successful in a formal trial". Moreover, the judge stated that if the law was not suspended, it would cause "irreparable harm" to Kalshi and Polymarket. This preliminary injunction will continue until the final judgement in the case。

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A 3 per cent drop in the helistrological index was caused by chips and metal stocks

On 28 July, following the overnight fall of the United States Science and Technology Unit, the Japanese stock market went down early, with a 3 per cent reduction in the mantra. Uncertainty about the conflict in Iran has also strained the market. Chips and metal plumb. The Edwan test fell by 8.0 per cent and Mitsui Kinzoku by 6.1 per cent. Investors are closely following the development of crude oil prices and the situation in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia indicated that it had intercepted drones launched by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq at its oil installations。

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BRIDGE WATER CO-IO: INCREASED GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION OR INCREASED INVESTMENT UNCERTAINTY IN AI

On 28 July, the Joint Chief Investment Officer of the Bridge Waters Fund, in his report to clients on Monday, stated that government involvement in the AI area could slow down the diffusion and development of the technology and create additional uncertainty for investors. The joint chief investment officers of the investment company, Bob Prince, Greg Jensen and Karen Karniol-Tambour, wrote in their report that, while regulation played a key role in reducing the potentially harmful consequences of AI, it could also disrupt the AI capital expenditure cycle by lowering capital rates of return or by simply increasing the uncertainty of long-term investment by investors. At the time of the above-mentioned comments, Washington was in the process of strengthening controls over the release of the new AI model to identify potential threats. The Bridge Water Warning stated that, despite the tight interest rate environment and the risk of stock market reversals in investment willingness to AI, the high concentration of investment in AI was accompanied by other risks, such as the lack of sensitivity to technological advances and government AI regulatory measures. The three Co-Directors stated that “the current expansion is dependent on the willingness to finance AI construction, which currently requires substantial investment”

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The economic daily: the logic of hard-tech growth is reflected in the euphoria

On 28 July, the article stated that the listing of long-term technology showed that the country was able to sustain not only its technical strength but also its industrial climate in the area of high-precision “calculation”. For a large number of investors, the marketing of long-term technology is both an age dividend and a “teststone” of an investment concept. Good technology firms take time to settle, and rational investment also requires patience. In the case of long-term technology, it is necessary to see both its puncture of the edges of technology and the objective pattern of semiconductor cycles. Only by adhering to the underlying logic of long-term, value-based investment can real returns be reaped. Kim Xian

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THE TRUMP GOVERNMENT IS CLOSE TO FINALIZING THE AI VOLUNTARY REVIEW FRAMEWORK

On 28 July, the Information reported that three informed sources had revealed that the Trump Government was about to finalize a voluntary framework requiring AI to submit its most advanced model to the Government before it was released to the public. According to the source, the draft framework was distributed to Openai, Anthropic and Google (GOOG.O) about two weeks ago by the Office of the Director of the White House National Network, and the three companies submitted their respective amendments. An executive order on AI signed by Trump in early June set August 1 as the deadline for the creation of the framework, which aims to establish a more standardized review process for a powerful new AI that can quickly detect network loopholes. According to two sources of information, at meetings with White House agencies, some AI companies expressed concerns about how the framework would define frontier models and whether there would be a distinction between closed and open source models as the deadline approached. There was also an outstanding question as to how voluntary the framework was in practice, particularly after the White House had decided to impose export controls on Anthropic. The Trump Government maintains that compliance with the framework is not mandatory. Kim Xian

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SpaceX has fallen off a Tesla

On 28 July, as of Monday, SpaceX stock prices had fallen on the 13th day of the last 16 trading days, resulting in a new low after-market offer of $113.50. Since June, when stock prices touched the high point of $225.64, SpaceX ' s market value has evaporated over $1.2 trillion, a figure that is almost exactly equal to the current market value of Tesla, another company under Elon Mask ' s flag, which has just fallen to a new low of almost a year。

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United States Trade Representative Greer: New tariffs will have no additional economic impact

On 28 July, United States trade representative Greer local time indicated on Monday that the new 301 tariff measures would not have new effects on the economy beyond what is currently being endured. According to Greer, the new tariffs imposed by United States President Trump on 60 trading partners may not have an economic impact, partly because 10 per cent, or 12.5 per cent, are similar to previous global tariff actions. Greer indicated that the new 301 tariff was more country-wide than the 10 per cent interim tariff that had been universally applied. However, the Agency indicated that new tariffs would still cover 99.4 per cent of United States imports. Kim Xian

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THE FORECAST MARKET PREDICTS THAT GPT-6 WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 78 PER CENT BY 30 SEPTEMBER

On 28 July, market traders were projected to set the probability price of OpenAI to be published by 30 September at about 78 per cent for GPT-6. Polymarket ' s associated market volume is approximately US$ 73.31 million, an increase of about US$ 32 million over the previous index snapshot, with the probability of a contract being issued by 30 September rising to 77 per cent, the probability of a contract being issued by 31 August at 30 per cent, and the probability of publication by 21 August falling to 15 per cent. The probability of myriad being released in September also rose to 77 per cent, up from 64 per cent last week. As of 27 July, OpenAI had not publicly announced GPT-6, technical design or release date, and its current flagship generic model GPT-5.6 Sol was released on 9 July. OpenAI has previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-publishing model broke Hugo Face during the cybersecurity assessment. The company has also announced 250 new jobs in Dublin, and soft silver is financing its OpenAI-related advancement through a $40 billion bridge loan。

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Anthropic clarified its position: it never advocated a ban on open weight AI models

On 28 July, Anthropic stated that it had never advocated a ban on the open weight AI model and refuted recent statements. Dario Amodei, its chief executive officer, stated that the company did not share the view that the open weight model was natural and more conducive to AI ' s safety and security development. This statement highlights the ongoing debate within the industry on the balance between open AI development and security。

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Anthropic Claude shared conversations are indexed by Google, exposing sensitive information such as encrypted wallet notes

On July 28, a Reddit user discovered hundreds of fully read Claude shared conversations via Google on July 25. These include encrypted wallets, suspected social security numbers, and sensitive information such as legal discussions. The problem is that Anthropic does not add a nonindex meta tag to Claude 's shared page. Its robots.txt has prevented Claude from sharing URLs, but Google can still index relevant pages when shared links appear on a public website. The same question relates to Claude Open Arts, including applications, dashboards and financial instruments created by users in Claude. The results of the search showed pay scales with names of employees, internal customer relationship management chats and unpublished product road maps. Before July 26th, after Anthropic updates the configuration and adds a noindex label, Google starts removing Claude's results. Bing still shows partial shared links; a GitHub repository has filed 453 Claude Dialogues and 519 Grok Dialogues with 11241 explicit messages。

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THE FIRST WEEK OF CME GOLD FUTURES ONLINE IN THE UNITED STATES IS HOME TO ALMOST 15,000 CONTRACTS

On 28 July, CME Group Inc., the United States of America, indicated that its 1 ounce of gold futures round-the-clock (24/7) transactions were on line during the first weekend, albeit with low volatility, but demand was stronger than expected and market liquidity was adequate. During the first weekend of the launch of the new 24/7 trading schedule, nearly 15,000 ounces of gold futures contracts, with a nominal value of approximately $60 million, were concluded. The participants at the Chiffon Institute constitute a similar group of one ounce of gold clients to its existing, and demand continues to come mainly from scattered investors。

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