The media-repeated Chinese-based securities view suggests that, since this year, the global AI scenario has been more like a “bottleneck” round driven by infrastructure investment, rather than relying solely on a high-valued and expanding technology bubble. According to the article, this pattern is closer to the cattle market, which was driven by heavy assets and investments between 2006 and 2007, so that the interest rate rise does not necessarily immediately turn into a turning point.

It's more like an investment cycle.

The article mentions that the most powerful plates this year are concentrated on hardware components such as storage, light communications, semiconductor equipment, and that platform companies and some AI applications are relatively weak. This means that the main market line falls more on supply constraints and capital spending expansion than on mere forward stories.

In contrast to the 2000 Internet bubble, the Chinese-intelligence securities also stated that the Nazdak 100 forward valuation was much higher than the current level, and that the Asia-Pacific Multi-Asia-Pacific AI supply chain company had risen significantly, but the valuation was not running out of sync. It is judged that this round is more profitable and investment-driven.

The impact of the increase depends on demand and expenditure

According to the article, an increase in interest rate expectations would not necessarily be sufficient to directly compress the valuation of the “AI cycle unit”. The real variables that change the course of events are whether or not the AI terminal demand is slowing down, commercialization assumptions are weakened, and capital spending by large technology companies is declining.

The paper cites historical experience that NASDAQ was quick to peak after the start of the interest rate hike in 1999; however, the round of more investment-driven cattle markets between 2004 and 2007 did not end immediately after the first hike. Based on this, the CSI may have limited impact on the relevant plate if AI capital investment continues to expand.

A share of non-AI plate pressure is even more evident.

According to the article, there is a general division between AI and nonAI in the global market, but the division between A shares is steeper. The calculations show that the valuation gap between A share AI and non-AI plates is significantly higher than in the United States, Japan and Korea, indicating that the valuation expansion is higher in the local market and the non-AI segments are weaker.

According to CIF, since May, the A shares and non-AI cycles have been weaker than overseas, with two pressures that stand out: the re-emergence of the United States dollar, and the continued foreclosure of the kwanky ETF, which suppresses traditional cycles and financial blocks that lack new narratives.

  • From 15 to 18 June,4 only 300 ETFs were redeemed totalling about $42.2 billion
  • The United States dollar index was strong over the same period, and the annual rate of return on United States debt fell.

Focus on non-AI plate self-repair signal

According to the article, the key to getting out of this vulnerability is not to wait for AI to come back, but rather to improve its own fundamentals and funding. For example, a fall in oil prices could lead to an expected decline in inflation, or the simultaneous rehabilitation of non-AI industrial activities globally could become a new catalyst.

At the end of the text, the Chinese-mail securities maintained the “AI + Enabling” configuration and continued to look at some of the AI hardware chains, energy chemicals and some coloured varieties, while considering that the low-value coupons were likely to be repaired in the second half of the year.