Arthur Hayes recently made a direct evaluation of Cardano and XRP, stating that the community adhesiveness of such projects came more from early holders than from the actual use the project itself had created. He also extended this judgement to the broader market for coins, arguing that price performance tended to determine whether users remained in the project for long periods of time more than technical narratives.
Early money is more important than function.
Hayes said that projects like Cardano or Ripple, even "do nothing" could keep long-term supporters. The reason is that the early participants, after buying at lower prices, have completed the accumulation of wealth with the founding team.
In his view, once community members received significant benefits at an early stage of the project, their loyalty to the project would last for a long time and even be delinked from subsequent fundamental changes. According to him, it is not the progress of development that really determines community relations, but rather whether the price benefits the holder.
Why didn't he buy the money for a while?
Turning to why he was not returning to the Shanche currency purchase, Hayes mentioned that monetized stocks began to offer 24-hour trading on multiple trading platforms, giving investors new alternatives. In the case of TSMC, he believed that the market could now trade such assets 24 hours a day, thereby reducing the attractiveness of the Shan dollar.
He also stated that he expected the AI bubble to break eventually, and felt that the round could be larger than the previous financial crises. In his judgement, AI ' s capital allocation and underwriting assumptions in infrastructure finance may ultimately be difficult to establish.
Long-term judgment of Cardano
Hayes even predicted that Cardano would remain within 50 after 15 years, but the project itself would not necessarily change significantly. For him, this is precisely an indication of the vitality of some assets in the market, which comes from early wealth distribution rather than from continuous product renewal.