Bitcoin has been up since Wednesday, almost two years, and has fallen to $58,000 and rebounded to around $60,000. The market boom was driven by weaker than expected data on employment and manufacturing in the United States, which temporarily cooled investors ' concerns about the continued interest rate hike by the Fed.
United States data-led rebound
CoinGecko data show that Bitcoin fell to US$ 57,779, the lowest level since September 2024, and then rebounded about 2.8 per cent. However, even with the rebound, prices were about 52 per cent below their historical highs of $126,000 in October 2025.
The United States data published that day were weak. ADP data show that in the United States in June there were 98,000 new private sector jobs, down from 122,000 in May and below market expectations. The ISM manufacturing index fell from 54 to 53.3 and the sub-payment price line from 82.1 to 73, indicating that inflationary pressures may have eased.
In his speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not explicitly release the signal of continued interest rate hikes in July or September. In the United States,2 the annual rate of return on the national debt was 4.15 per cent, which was largely the same, and the market's interest in further tightening policies cooled.
ETF June, a record out.
Before the wheel bounced, bitcoin just went through a pressurized June. SoSoValue data show that American real-time bitcoin ETF net outflows of $4.5 billion that month, with the highest single-month outflows recorded. The market had previously feared that the Federal Reserve had moved towards a more hawk-oriented position at its first meeting after Warsh, which was expected to move the interest rate further.
Financial constraints are accompanied by the fragmentation of data on the chain. Glassnode states that long-term holders have shifted to increased holdings and that there are more buyouts in Binance and Coinbase's spot order books, indicating that some of the funds are being held low.
There's a sign of salivation on the chain.
According to Glassnode, while there are still more bitcoin in deficit, the internal structure of the market is changing. Analyst Chris Beamish described the current phase as the “first stage of the construction of the base”, but stated that the market could not rule out the last round of centralized sales.
At the same time, the stabilization of currency payments operations was affected by the fluctuations in bitcoin to a relatively limited extent. The encrypted payment company, Oobit CEO Amram Adar, stated that the demand for a stable currency was continuing to grow and that the payment scene was gradually deflating from price speculation.
Next, the market will continue to follow the United States non-farm employment report this week. If the data continue to be weak, the expectation of higher interest rates may be further mitigated; if the data are back strong, the price of bitcoin may again face downward pressure.