In the United States, when non-farm employment data were lower than expected in June, the market rapidly adjusted its judgement of the Federal Reserve ' s follow-on policy and risk assets generally strengthened. Bitcoin rose by $62,000 on 2 July, a clear rebound from its low position earlier in the week, before falling around $6.16 million.

Non-farm data are lower than expected

Data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics show that in June, 57,000 new people were employed in non-farm employment, down from 115,000 as expected by the market. In May, the data was also revised down to 43,000, ending a situation that had been higher than expected for months in succession.

Unemployment rate is reported at 4.2 per cent, slightly lower than expected at 4.3 per cent. This means that the United States labour market remains resilient, but recruitment has slowed. With the release of the data, market concerns about the continued tightening of the Fed's policy have cooled.

In July, as expected, the temperature will rise.

Polymarket and CME Fedwatch data show that traders have reduced the bets for interest increases again during the year, while raising the expectation that the July meeting would remain unchanged. CME Fedwatch shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to rise to 80.2 per cent in July on the basis of a non-operational probability, up from about 72 per cent the previous day.

The report also mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh had previously stated at the ECB Forum that inflation risks were being mitigated. While he did not provide a direct indication of the future interest rate path, the statement was interpreted by the market as a reduction in the urgency of further interest rate hikes.

Bitcoin bounced and faced resistance.

Following a shift in macro projections, Bitcoin rebounded from a position lower than $60,000 earlier this week and was on a short stop of $62,000. According to analysts, the proximity of $6.25 million is a short-term critical position, and further improvements in the market structure are likely to occur if it can be stabilized again.

At the trade level, some observers claim that Binance and OKX have a more active bitcoin purchase, while Coinbase's sales pressure has cooled, indicating a rebound in spot demand between the main trading platforms.

However, the market remains divided as to whether this round of rebound is sufficient to confirm the end of the adjustment. According to some traders, the current trend is more of a phase-out, and Bitcoin still needs to recover between $65,000 and $70,000 if the recovery is to be further confirmed.