Following the United States-Iraq ceasefire, crude oil transport in the Middle East is being resumed and the risk premium on oil prices, which was pushed up by the conflict in the previous period, is being reversed. WTI crude oil fell 68 dollars per barrel, 125 days for the first time. At the same time, bitcoin went up in step with gold and market risk preferences were repaired.

Recovery of Saudi shipboarding and strait passage

Saudi Amey has resumed loading at the port of Rastanura. The port, one of the largest crude oil terminals in the world, had been cut off for almost four months. The shipping data company Kpler estimates that traffic in the Straits of Hormuz has returned to approximately 40 ships per day.

United Arab Emirates exports have also returned to pre-conflict levels. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 per cent of the world ' s trade in crude oil by sea, has rapidly lowered the price of supply disruptions as this channel re-opens.

Saudi exports rebounded.

More direct signals came from Saudi exports. It was reported that after the ceasefire had led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, four super-large tankers operated by Bahri had left the bay, carrying a total of approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil.

Saudi crude oil exports declined from over 7 million barrels per day in February to about 4 million barrels per day during the conflict. Today, the pace of exports is approaching a level of about 6.3 million barrels per day before the situation escalated.

  • Approximately 40 posts/days in the Strait of Hormuz
  • 4 Tanker totalling approximately 8 million barrels crude oil
  • The Saudi exit is rising to about 6.3 million barrels per day.

The fall in oil prices led to a rebound in risk assets

As supply routes resumed, traders began to withdraw from the Middle East conflict premium previously pledged. A few weeks ago, the market also took into account the possibility of supply disruptions, oil tanker stress and prolonged conflict. Today, WTI has broken the price gap in the United States since the end of February, when it hit Iran.

Risk assets are supported when oil prices cool. Reports indicate that bitcoin has risen by more than 5 per cent over the past 24 hours to approximately $61,649, while gold continues to stand above $4,000. Lower energy costs usually help to reduce inflation expectations and interest rate pressures, thereby improving the trading environment for high-risk assets.

However, the market did not fully believe that the crisis had ended. The current judgement is still based on a two-month ceasefire arrangement, and the insurance agency remains cautious about the risks of Gulf shipping. At least for the time being, the fall in oil prices has become the latest sign of a more stable market bet.