Media quoted CryptoQuant as saying that bitcoin continued to decline in capital efficiency during the current cycle. As the market value expands, there is a marked increase in the additional funding required to drive prices up further and significantly. According to the article, if Bitcoin wanted to recreate the steep rise of the past, it might need more than $1 trillion in new funding.

The increase in the current round corresponds to higher financial consumption

CryptoQuant measured the additional funds absorbed by the cattle market by “realized market value” and compared with price increases. This indicator, which is valued at the price of each bitcoin last moved on the chain, is often used to observe the scale of funds actually entering the asset.

  • 2011 cycle: net inflows of approximately $2.8 billion, up by about 55,000 per cent
  • 2015 cycle: approximately $69 billion in inflows, with an increase of nearly 10,000 per cent
  • Since 2022: approximately $697 billion in inflows, with a return of approximately 689 per cent

It was also mentioned that, in 2011, about $5 million in new funding would be sufficient to double the price of bitcoin; in the current cycle, the need to achieve the same increase had risen to about $10.1 billion.

Institutional funding is considered the next stage of funding

According to CriptoQant founder Ki Young Ju, this set of data is more like a reminder to the market that it takes longer, rather than an indication that the situation is at its top. According to external sources, his core judgement is that, in order to enter the next round, bitcoin will rise more strongly if it becomes a more central macro asset, not just a target driven by retail money and ETF transactions.

According to this judgement, the market needs to absorb more than $1 trillion in new capital, and the scope of institutional adoption is significantly above current levels to support a new spiral.

ETF Financial flows bring real constraints

The article notes, however, that the timing of this determination is not easy. In the United States, the real bitcoin ETF has experienced a record outflow in recent months, and the decline in the first half of Bitcoin has meant that the deeper institutional capital that markets expect has not yet generated a steady increase.

The article also mentions that the current market value of gold is about $27 trillion, or more than 20 times that of a bitcoin. Proponents often show that there is theoretical room for expansion if Bitcoin is seen more broadly as a macrovalue asset.

However, a more cautious view was also expressed that, as the volume of assets grew, the percentage increase per dollar of additional funds fell, which would have been common. Even if the institutional space is still in place, it remains uncertain whether there will be a sustained inflow at the scale anticipated at many scales.