The data on the Bitcoin chain show once again that the current market is still under considerable pressure. According to CriptoQuant Analyst Darkfost, active Bitcoin holders are now on average about 20 per cent of the unrealized losses, while an active warehouse cost area of about $767 million is becoming an important drag on the market.
$7.67 million becomes the upper resistance.
The indicator mentioned by Darkfost is True Market Mean, known as TMM. The indicator reflects the average purchase cost of active currency holders, rather than the average cost of all bitcoin across the network. As it removes long-sleeping, or even parts of it that may have been lost, it is closer to the holding price of the real-trading group in the current market.
In his view, this zone is important because a similar situation has occurred in May. When bitcoin prices are close to this level, many investors choose to sell them in the vicinity rather than continue to hold them, which has led to a clear resistance in the region.
By the time the text was issued on 4 July, Bitcoin had reported $62596, an increase of 1.67 per cent for 24 hours, but still significantly below the TMM equivalent. This means that a large number of active holdouts remain at a loss.
Active holding is still undervalued.
In addition to the TMM, Darkfost also observed the AVIV indicator, Active Valle to Invester Valle. This indicator is used to compare the relationship between the current market value of bitcoin and the cost of active holders.
According to him, AVIV currently stands at about 0.8, which means that bitcoin is still in relative discount range. Based on this reading, he estimated that the average unrealized losses for active investors were about 20 per cent.
However, he agreed that bitcoin did not necessarily need to fall into deeper undervalued areas, as in Bear City. This is due to a significantly higher level of adoption in the current cycle and a stronger market base earlier.
ETF Slowing Financial Flows Test Back
Meanwhile, another study by CryptoQuant suggests that, as the overall market value of Bitcoin expands, the next round of large-scale increases may require over $1 trillion in additional funding.
According to the agency, since 2022, some $697 billion has gone to bitcoin, driving a cumulative price increase of about 689 per cent. However, in the context of large inflows, the rate of return has narrowed markedly compared to earlier cycles.
New tests of institutional needs have also emerged in the near future. The U.S. spot bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows, and the market began to focus on whether the new funds could be returned in time to support the next phase of the increase.
There are still signs of expansion in enterprise configuration. Strategy, a listed company with more than 847,000 BTC, is assessing how to obtain liquidity from the holdroom without selling bitcoin. According to Galaxy Digital, a more conservative borrowing or options strategy may help them to earn a sustained income while retaining a long-term hold.