Hyperliquid is preparing to move the forecast market from a certificationist-led to a more open online model. The platform indicated that, as a follow-up to the HIP-4 upgrade, future users would be able to deploy their own projected market on the platform and that the related functionality would be tested on the online line before being rolled over to the main network.
Deployment requires 500,000 Hypes.
In accordance with the design disclosed by the Platform, the creation of a forecast market for users requires a pledge of 500,000 HYPEs, estimated at approximately US$ 30 million in text. The pledge is not a form requirement. If the certifier finds that the market definition is unclear or settlement is problematic, the pledge may be forfeited.
In return, the deploying party will receive up to 50 per cent of the market ' s transaction costs. Hyperliquid describes this mechanism as “a pledge to limit market quality”, i.e., where the market is properly designed to receive the benefit and where the design error bears the loss.
The existing market is still controlled by the certifier.
Hyperliquid introduced the "results trading" function through HIP-4 in May this year, the basic framework for predicting markets. At present, however, such markets remain entirely under the control of the certifying officer. The Platform stated that, ideally in the future, fewer than 10 markets per year would be operated directly by a certificationer, with the remaining markets open to external participants.
This approach is different from platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The latter two markets are usually defined by the platform in a uniform way, and Hyperliquid wants to make the forecast market into a more open chain product module.
There is still a gap in predicting competition in the market
In terms of market size, the market is expected to remain active in the near future. It is mentioned that in June, the total wager for the industry reached $50 billion, and as of July it stood at $37 billion. Large-scale events such as the World Cup were seen as driving trade growth.
However, the volume of Hyperliquid in this track is still significantly small. In June, according to the text, the size of the Kalshi deal was about $33 billion, representing about 66 per cent of the market share; Hyperliquid was only $176 million over the same period, leaving a wide gap from the head platform.
Hyperliquid is betting on open supply models. If this mechanism can attract more market creators and maintain the quality of settlements, the platform may have the opportunity to expand its presence in the forecast market area.