Goldman Sachs: If the Fed stands still today, the foreign exchange market will focus on the probability of future interest rate hikes

ON 29 JULY, PRIOR TO THE RELEASE OF THE INTEREST RATE RESOLUTION BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE, THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR INDEX MOVED EVENLY; THE RESULTS OF THE RESOLUTION WERE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN UNCERTAINTY. THE GOLDMAN SACHS ECONOMIST PREDICTED THAT THE FED WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT AT LEAST ONE AGAINST IT AND SUPPORTED THE INCREASE. IN A REPORT, THEY STATED THAT THE WAR-INDUCED ENERGY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS CAST A SHADOW OVER THE PROSPECTS. CURRENT MARKET PRICING SHOWS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF TODAY ' S INCREASE IS ABOUT 30 PER CENT. GOLDMAN SACHS STATED THAT IF THE FED WERE TO MAINTAIN INTEREST RATES TODAY, THE FOCUS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS WOULD BE ON HOW MUCH WOULD SHIFT TO SUBSEQUENT INTEREST-RATE MEETINGS, AS PREVIOUSLY REFLECTED IN THE PRICE HIKE. DATA FROM THE CME SHOW THAT INVESTORS HAVE FACTORED INTO THE PRICING OF THE SEPTEMBER INCREASE。