FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR YEARS IN JUNE, THE UNITED STATES PCE RETURNED TO THE RING, AND THE MARKET BECAME MORE DIVIDED ON THE PATH OF THE FED ' S FOLLOW-ON POLICY

On 31 July, the PCE price index ring fell by 0.1 per cent in the United States in June, the first ring-down in four years, declining to 3.7 per cent the same rate of increase; and the core PCE ring rose by 0.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent the same year, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure. During the same period, in the United States, private consumption spending grew by 0.3 per cent in June, personal income by 0.2 per cent and savings fell to 2.7 per cent, a four-year low. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its July meeting, despite a slowdown in inflation. Market differences over the follow-up policy path are clear: Morgan Chase expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and believes that it is still possible to raise interest rates in September if inflation continues to warm; Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect to hold up their military positions during the year, and the United States Bank expects to increase interest rates cumulatively three times in September, while Citill maintains its expectation of a sustained fall in October, December and January 2027. The CME FedWat data show that the market pricing probability of an interest rate increase in September is currently 65.2 per cent, with a fall-back before the results were released。