The Fed's probability of an increase of 25 basis points in September is 58.4 per cent

ON 5 AUGUST, ACCORDING TO THE CME “FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH”, THE FED HAD A PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING INTEREST RATES CONSTANT BY 41.6 PER CENT BY SEPTEMBER AND A PROBABILITY OF A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF 25 BASIS POINTS OF 58.4 PER CENT. THE FED HAS A 30.5 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING INTEREST RATES CONSTANT BY OCTOBER AND A 53.9 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF 25 BASIS POINTS AND A 15.5 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF 50 BASIS POINTS。