Deutsche Gin expects the Fed to increase interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December

DEUTSCHE BANK ECONOMISTS EXPECT THE FED TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER, RESPECTIVELY. IN HIS ADDRESS TO JACKSON HALL, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN WALSH STRESSED THE NEED TO RETURN INFLATION TO THE 2 PER CENT TARGET AND TO SEND A VISIBLE HAWK SIGNAL. DEUTSCHE BANK BELIEVES THAT THE THRESHOLD OF 25 BASIS POINTS TO AVOID THE SEPTEMBER INTEREST RATE HIKE IS ALREADY HIGH UNLESS THE ECONOMIC DATA PUBLISHED IN THE FUTURE ARE “MANIFESTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED”. THE MARKET HAS ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASED INTEREST-RATE BETS: CME DATA SHOW THAT THE PROBABILITY OF A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF 50 BASIS POINTS OR MORE BY DECEMBER HAS RISEN TO 51 PER CENT, COMPARED WITH 38 PER CENT FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY'S 29 BASIS POINTS AND 11 PER CENT FOR INTEREST RATES. FOLLOWING WALSH ' S SPEECH, THE MARKET ' S BET ON THE INTEREST RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER ALSO ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY。