Morgan Chase: The basics are still strong, but the U.S. shares have to take risks first

The Morgan Chase Market Intelligence team has moved the USU tactical perspective downwards to “prudence/neutrality”, and it is expected that the 2-3 week index will be more likely to sustain the shock and that fluctuations at the sub-indicators and the individual stock levels will be further exacerbated. At the same time, the team continues to believe that the United States economy and business fundamentals remain strong, and this adjustment is more in favour of short-term risk management. The pressure came from several variables at the same time: after Jackson Hall, the implicit September interest rate increase in the bond market rose from about 35 per cent to 58 per cent; the JPMPURE drive index fell by 21 per cent above the June point, and the “Classic” drive index fell by almost 34 per cent, significantly above the typical retreat zone of 10-15 per cent in the past. Nor did the silo give a clear direction, and the United States TPM remained at 37 per cent, with historical patterns pointing to the next 3-4 weeks of oscillation. Therefore, the next phase will need to be accompanied by observations of inflation and interest rate expectations, credit spreads and the rate at which the movement will be cleared. While significant adjustments are not necessary at the index level, more crowded, previously dynamic-driven equities may continue to bear greater internal fluctuations. Kim Xian