Tom Lee relays the analyst's point of view: predicting the market or underestimating the probability that Clarity Act will pass

On 22 July, Tom Lee forwarded the opinion of analyst Sean Farrell on the probabilities of the adoption of the Clarity Act, stating that his communication with policymakers indicated that the passage of the bill was more likely than the current pricing of the forecast market, and that “near term restrictions” prevented the insiders from making transactions on the basis of that result, so that the forecasted markets of Polymarket and Kalshi might underestimate the probabilities of the adoption of the bill. In its forwarding, Tom Lee indicated that this judgement was biased。