Bitwise: Bitcoin is rising at the bottom of every cycle, and institutional investors are buying low
On 10 July, Juan Leon, a senior investment strategist in Bitwise, stated that the city of Bitcoin Bear was currently fundamentally different from previous cycles, that institutional adoption was increasing, and that the market was affected by the AI boom, macro-uncertainties and delays in United States encryption legislation. Bitwise ' s institutional clients are broadly divided into two categories: the investors that have been allocated bitcoin over the past two years, considering the current round ' s fall as a rebalancing and investment opportunity, while the other part of the large fund is still awaiting a clearer regulatory framework. He said: “In 2022, clients asked if the encrypted currency would survive; in 2026, they asked about entry points and the size of the warehouse. This is a completely different dialogue. According to Leon, the current decline is the “structurally mildest bear town” since Bitcoin’s record, and is now about 50 per cent at a higher point, down from 78 per cent in 2022 and 84 per cent in 2018. He indicated that bitcoin was rising at the bottom of each cycle, reflecting the maturity of the asset and the shift of marginal holders from bulk speculators to professional asset configurors. However, Leon also acknowledges that bitcoin may still go down further, as the Bear City usually lasted between 12 and 13 months in the past, compared to the current round of about 8 months. He noted that some of the traditional bottom-up signals had begun to appear, including oversold kinetic energy indicators, the loss of about half of the Bitcoin holders, the re-emergence of long-term holders, and a record outflow of spot Bitcoin ETF in June. The current problem with the encryption market comes more from the macro level than from the fundamentals. Leon also stated that the AI boom attracted billions of dollars that could have gone into the encryption market. Since April, storage chips ETF have attracted about $12 billion in inflows, while spot bitcoin ETF outflows exceeded $4 billion. As AI capital expenditure is expected to be digested by the market, relative valuations shrink, the configuration may re-search assets that fall at a higher point by 50 per cent and that are substantially improved. At the same time, it is argued that AI and encryption will gradually move towards complementarity and that the intelligent AI may rely on programmable currency, inter-machine payments and stable currency tracks。
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