The US Bank’s technocratic team believes that market pressure from the Iranian war is diminishing, but the US share is likely to enter a more difficult phase this summer. In its latest client report, the team indicated that the Standard 500 had seen a number of technology-reducing signals, either in the third quarter or in the back-to-back zone.
Worst-case scenario to 6850 points
In the judgement of the Bank of the United States, this round of adjustments could turn into a “triple-twice round”, that is, a three-part fall to complete the amendment. The strategy team mentioned that if the pamphlet 500 continued to be small, high and close to 7741 points, it could instead constitute a “multi-head trap”, and the risk of a short-line up and down rises.
The weaker situation given by the line is that the index is at least likely to go down to 6850 points in the back-to-back phase, which is about 6% below the current level.
Three technical signals are coming together.
The first signal listed by the Bank of America is kinetic energy deviation. The team stated that while index prices remained high, the indicator reflecting the intensity of the increase was not synchronized, suggesting that the purchasing drive was weakening. For example, the 14-day relative strength and weakness indicator RSI has fallen back from its previous highs and is around 49 Fridays.
The second signal comes from the TD Secure indicator. This indicator is often used to judge whether a trend is near depletion. According to the Bank of America, the “red 13” signal of 1 June was found in Standard 500, which usually means that the previous sustained increase was nearing failure, and that subsequent increases were easier to sort or fall back.
The third is related to Elliot's wave theory. According to the strategy team, the market may have entered the fourth wave, which usually corresponds to a midway back in the course of the round. Bepp 500 fell to point 7334 on 10 June, a position that the Bank of the United States believes might be at the bottom of the fourth wave; if the position is subsequently broken, it will be further confirmed that the callback has begun.
We're still on the rebound for the fourth quarter.
Despite a shift in caution over the three quarters, United States banks have not completely turned empty. The bank indicated that if the recall were to be completed in the summer and early autumn, the market would still be expected to recover in the fourth quarter, with the possibility of even a common “Christmas affair” at the end of the year.
There has also been an increase in recent market doubts about the strength of the cattle market in this round, especially since the pre-heavy chips and storage plates began to cool. The NASDAQ 100 index dropped cumulatively by about 4 per cent last week, of which Bonto week fell by about 10 per cent, Inverda by about 8 per cent and Intel by about 7 per cent. This also reflects the fact that the core science and technology unit, which was driving the index upwards in the previous period, is under more pronounced pressure to gain back.