In a recent interview with CoinDesk, Zhao Chang Peng stated that the encryption market was clearly weak in the first half of 2026 and that there was no single incentive behind it. According to him, some of the risk funds absorbed by AI ' s hot tide, the rise in global geo-climate tensions and the market ' s own four-year cycle could put pressure on prices.
Bitcoin has been falling since October 2025, once up to $126,000, and is now hovering around $60,000. Bitcoin was mentioned in the article as about $89,000 at the beginning of 2026 and then briefly broke into $96,000, but then went down. This trend has also led to a renewed discussion of whether the current decline is still part of the adjustment of the traditional cycle or whether the market structure has changed.
AI Take off some high-risk funds
According to Zhao Chang Peng, AI is one of the strongest financial themes in the current global market, and part of the short-term funds that could have gone to encrypted assets would have gone in the direction of AI infrastructure, chips, cloud computing and robotics. He described this change as a phased financial rotation rather than a long-term abandonment of digital assets by investors.
The article also mentions that as the AI plate continues to attract attention, public heat in the encryption market is declining. A recent report on encrypted heat searches shows that, although Bitcoin prices are still significantly higher than the 2022 bear market low, public interest has declined to a low level for a year. For the encryption market, this means that the new impetus for retail money has diminished.
Four-year cycle debate resumed.
Zhao Chang Peng also referred to the historical cyclical fluctuations of Bitcoin in relation to halving, changing liquidity and investor behaviour, and therefore the four-year cycle remains one of the important clues in explaining this round.
However, market differences are widening. According to one view, bitcoin had more than 50 per cent of its high point in 2025 and could still be found in the historical cycle; while another view was that the impact of spot ETFs, treasury configurations and derivatives transactions had significantly increased, and that the old cycle model did not necessarily provide a complete explanation of market performance in 2026.
Policy and forecast markets remain a concern
In addition to the market itself, Zhao Chang Peng referred to the importance of the United States encryption policy. In his view, bills such as the CLARITY Act were more like concrete steps to promote industry development than the only variable that determined long-term trends. A more clear regulatory framework could help to increase the flow of encryption to the United States.
He also spoke of forecasting markets, saying that such products helped to price events and provide liquidity. The article mentioned that Zhao Chang Peng had previously supported the projected market developments on BNB Chain and endorsed Predict.fun ' s acquisition of Probable as helping to pool mobility and team resources.
Overall, Zhao Chang Peng was cautious about the short-term market, but did not turn to long-term vision. In his view, the fall in 2026 was more a result of multiple pressures, while there was room for expansion in the encryption industry as the demand for digital transactions and financial technology continued to grow.