Galaxy Research reduced the estimate of completion of legislation in 2026 for the United States Digital Asset Markets CLARITY Act. The agency reduced the probability of the bill becoming law from 60 per cent to 50 per cent on the grounds that the Senate had a tight schedule and that legislation was moving slower than expected.
Adjust causes to schedule
According to Galaxy Research, this reduction is mainly a reflection of time pressures rather than a pessimism about the future of the bill. According to it, the Senate currently has more issues to deal with, and it is not easy to have enough time to consider and vote on the Digital Assets Bill.
According to the Agency, the main obstacle to the advancement of the bill lies in scheduling rather than in clear political resistance. This means that the window of time may narrow if the next phase is not reached as soon as possible, even if there is a basis for support for the bill itself.
Through the Senate Banking Committee
At present, the bill has been passed through the Senate Banking Commission but has not yet entered the Senate plenary voting procedure. While the bill has completed an important juncture, there are still several steps to be taken to become law.
Members of Parliament will also need to address a number of outstanding issues before entering the House for a vote and to seek formal consideration by the Senate. For the encryption industry, this stage determines whether the bill can move from committee to more substantive legislative progress.
Early July or short-term nodes
Galaxy Research mentioned that if there was no further progress on the bill by early July, the follow-up review could be postponed until September. This means that the scheduling of the agenda in the short term will be an important signal for observing changes in the rhythm of the bill.
From a market point of view, such a change in schedule usually affects external judgement as to the rate at which digital asset regulation in the United States will land. The lower probability does not mean that the bill lost its support, but shows that there is a risk of delay in its path to completing the legislation in 2026.