Foreign media: As the mid-term elections in the United States approach, the market ' s expectation that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be completed by 2026 is cooling. Galaxy Research recently reduced the probability of the Act becoming law during the year to 49 per cent, down from 60 per cent earlier this month.
The Senate agenda is a major obstacle
According to Alex Thorn, the research director of Galaxy Research, the problem is not the content of the bill itself, but the amount of time available in the Senate is diminishing. After passing the Senate Banking Commission in May this year, the CARITY Bill has not yet entered the formal voting process.
Under the current procedure, the bill still needs to be integrated into the version of the Banking Commission and the Agriculture Commission, as well as to move forward with the motion, the House debate, the amendment and the Chamber of Deputies. Thorn believed that the remaining time had been reduced to weeks when those steps had not been completed.
He indicated that, if the Senate majority leader, John Thune, could not schedule the House in early July, the rate of legislative progress would probably be delayed until September. If a uniform text could be published in July and disputes such as ethical provisions and the protection of developers could be addressed, the probability of the bill being passed could be revived.
The next two weeks are considered key windows
“Crypto in America” journalist Eleanor Terrett agreed that the next two weeks would determine the course of the bill. As a result of the Senate recess until 13 July, the process is currently relying primarily on the coordination of texts in the presence of two party staff, government officials and industry representatives.
She noted that, upon the return of the senators, the focus would shift from negotiations to procedural arrangements in preparation for the Court ' s vote. Thane has, however, expressed the hope that the adoption of the Defence Authorization Act would be addressed first, which means that the CLARITY could be postponed until late July or even early August, when the summer break would be further advanced.
Even with the timely completion of the text, it remains uncertain whether the bill will pass. The Senate usually requires 60 votes, which means that, in addition to 53 Republican members, some 7 Democrats will be needed.
The controversy focused on ethical provisions and regulatory attribution.
It was mentioned that one of the keys to gaining the support of the Democrats was how to deal with ethical issues related to President Trump ' s encryption operations, as well as illegal financial risk clauses. In an effort to gain cross-party support, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a compromise proposal that would allow state attorneys-general to prosecute the exchange in which public officials on the line issue currency.
From an industry perspective, the significance of CLARITY lies in demarcating the digital goods and securities boundary by statutory law and in clarifying the regulatory authority of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over most primary-chain coins, while reducing the coverage of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on spot-coded markets. The bill also covers the protection of DeFi activities and the federal level of self-trust.
This is particularly important for Solana. SEC and CFTC included SOL in one of the 16 digital commodities in March of this year, but this finding is still the interpretation of the regulator and is not a legal provision. If CLARITY is finally adopted, a more stable legal basis will be obtained for asset classification like SOL.
According to Polymarket, the probability of completing legislation by the end of this year is currently about 49 per cent, down from 82 per cent in February.