Foreign media: In its latest market review, the greyscale indicates that whether Bitcoin is close to the lower point of the current round depends mainly on three variables: Progress in the United States digital asset market structure legislation, the financial position of Strategy and whether the Fed continues to tighten its policy.
In the greyscale baseline scenario, the CLARITY bill passed successfully in the Senate, Strategy balance sheet pressure eased, and the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged. If these three conditions are established, the current price range may be near the low of the current cycle. On the contrary, bitcoin may fall further if the associated risks continue to ferment.
The Clarity Bill is still pending.
Greyscale believes that progress in regulatory legislation remains an important factor influencing market sentiment. The aim of the CLARITY Act is to establish federal-level market structure rules for digital assets, covering the regulatory division of labour between trading platforms, developers and issuers of coins.
At present, although the bill has been approved at the committee stage and entered the Senate agenda, it will need to be followed by a full House to consider, process the amendments and obtain 60 votes in favour. The need for coordination between the Senate Banking Commission and the Agriculture Commission was mentioned, as were conflict-of-interest provisions, stabilization currency rules, anti-illegal financing provisions and voting schedules.
Increased interest rate expected to suppress risk preferences
Greyscale lists the Fed as the second major risk. The report cites recent market expectations that, if inflation remained high, the Fed would be able to raise interest rates again in September 2026 at the earliest. Other projections indicate that the Federal Reserve's updated interest rate outlook for June is more hawk-oriented than before, and that some officials are beginning to expect an interest rate increase by the end of the year.
In the case of bitcoin, higher interest rates mean that interest-free assets are less attractive. Cash and United States Treasury debt have become more attractive to some of the funds following a strong dollar and an increase in real rates of return. Since this year, bitcoin and gold have been under pressure in a strong dollar and high interest rate environment.
Strategy becomes a risk observation point
In addition to policy and interest rates, ashscale is considered one of the current market risk observations. It was previously reported that after the fall of the Bitcoin by $60,000, Strategy held a bitcoin book value that was once about $12 billion lower and its stock exchange prices fell below the bitcoin value held.
Other analyses suggest that the company's “bitcoon flyer” effect is diminishing as stock premiums narrow and financing difficulties increase. If DAM continued to leverage, the market envelope could be expanded.
Grayscale does not expect this round to be repeated by about 80 percent of deep bear City in history. According to the article, the next movement of Bitcoin will depend mainly on three factors in a favourable direction: the advancement of the bill, the stability of interest rates and the stable financial position of Strategy. If the three developed in reverse, there was still room for moderation in the market.