Citicorps has lowered the price expectations for bitcoin and Taifeng for the next 12 months. The bank reduced the target price of bitcoin from $1.12 million to $82,000, and from $3175 to $2240, using the target price of the hotel. Adjustments were based on, inter alia, encrypted ETF financial flows, weakened investor demand and slow progress in United States digital asset legislation.

At present, Bitcoin has reported $5.89 million, which is low since September 2024; the Ethera has reported about $1586, which is close to low since April 2025. Citi believes that one of the central reasons for the recent market pressure is that the real ETF no longer provides the incremental financial support it previously did.

ETF expected down to zero.

Citicorp ' s latest baseline scenario assumes no new net inflows for the next 12 months. The Bank is expected to lower to zero the previous net inflows of $10 billion and states that the key price driver of the ETF financial flows has recently weakened.

According to Reuters, the ETF flow of Bitcoin has been reduced by approximately $3.3 billion since this year, citing the Citi point of view. Citi also indicated that earlier higher price targets were based on the premise that investors and finance advisers would continue to hold back, but that wider use of traditional finance had now stalled and markets were still waiting for new catalysts.

United States legislation is slowing down the emotional recovery.

In a more pessimistic scenario, Citicorp expects that in the coming year, bitcoin may fall to $53,000, and the Taifah may fall to $1094. This scenario is based on the premise that the macro environment is weak and accompanied by continuous ETF outflows.

Citi also mentioned that the United States digital asset legislation was advancing slowly and was suppressing market sentiment. The Bank believes that the bill could have been a new driving force, but before the mid-term elections in the United States in November, the likelihood of significant legislative progress was declining.

Strategy Synchronized Down

Citi flag also points out that a number of bitcoin ETF holders are in a state of loss and the price of encrypted assets is below the pre-election level in the United States in 2024. The Bank believes that such markets remain highly dependent on emotional changes and that prices, ETF flows and chain and bottom activities can fluctuate rapidly.

In addition to the encrypted assets themselves, Citicorp reduced the target price of Strategy from $260 to $136, but maintained the “buy-in” rating. Since Strategy is one of the world ' s leading enterprise-level Bitcoin holders, its valuation is highly relevant to the Bitcoin price assumption.

It was mentioned that the valuation model for Strategy had also been synchronized after 12 months of downward adjustment of the flag by bitcoin. Citicorp believes that Strategy ' s renewed capital arrangement has increased liquidity and allowed the company more time to operate steadily.

Projected market bias downward

Previously, Strategy had published a new capital framework, which included a Bitcoin Liquidation Plan. Under the arrangement, companies could sell more than $1.25 billion in bitcoin for reserve, dividends, interest payments or repurchases when management considered it more appropriate than to issue the stock.

Data from Polymarket also show that traders are now more interested in down-line targets. The data show that the probability of bitcoin touching $55,000 was 79 per cent, and the probability of falling to $50,000 was 63 per cent; the probability of breaking $70,000 was 57 per cent and the probability of breaking $80,000 was 34 per cent.

Overall, Citicorp ' s baseline scenario is still higher than current prices, but the Bank believes that bitcoin ' s rebound may be slower than previously anticipated if the ETF financial flows do not improve, United States legislation does not advance and investment needs do not recover.