After weeks of sale, there were signs of stability in the encryption market. Using the point of view of the Santiago analyst, Brian Quinlivan, the short-line rebound was not sufficient to show that the trend had been reversed and that the chain valuation indicators better reflected the current market position.
He highlighted the MVRV indicators. This indicator is used to compare the market value of assets with the average cost of warehouse holders and is often used to observe whether encrypted assets are overvalued or undervalued. According to him, BTC, ETH and XRP's long-term MVRV have all fallen into historically low-risk areas.
Bitcoin whales are still declining.
Although the mood in the market has been repaired compared to earlier periods, the movement of the Bitcoin households has not been uniform. The Santiago data show that since mid-June, approximately 5.47 million BTCs have been sold out of 100,000 to 10,000 BTC wallets.
According to Quinlivan, this is still worth watching. While the resurgence of whales in the past several rounds has tended to be more conducive to the continuation of the increase, the current reduction is indicative of a cautious approach to funding.
However, in the longer term, the chain valuation of bitcoin did not return to high-risk areas. The 365 days MVRV is about -30%, meaning that the average long-term holder is still in a state of loss. Similar depth negatives have in the past been found more in the long-term inhaling phase than in the overheating phase of the market.
There's a sign of retrieving at the Ether.
The Ether Workshop chain is better than before. According to Santiago, having 1 to 100,000 ETH wallets, after months of reduction, it has been redirected to increased holding.
As prices rebounded to around $1700, 30 days of ETH had returned slightly to positive value, but long-term indicators remained low. It's 365 days MVRV close to -41%. Quinlivan compared this level to April 2025, when market sentiment was the same, and ETH was subsequently relatively repaired.
At the same time, he pointed out that the follow-up to the Taifaf still depended to a large extent on the direction of the Bitcoin, but in comparison with successive cycles, the current long-term downside risks had been significantly reduced compared to earlier periods.
XRP Supersells the best.
Of the three assets, Quinlivan considers the reverse signals of XRP to be most visible. XRP had previously stopped at a critical position of US$ 1, with a price rebounding from around US$ 1.01 to temporarily avoid breaking this psychological threshold.
More critically, the 30-day and 365-day MVRVs have fallen to about -45% and are at a weaker level in recent years. According to him, such negative Depth values usually occur after the suspension of the bulk market and the rapid release of market pushes, and are often easier to repair if the pressure is reduced.
However, this judgement is still a chained data perspective and does not mean that the market has recognized its bottom line. According to the article, if viewed only from MVRV, XRP is now one of the lower-risk zones in history.