Bitcoin's underperforming this year, and the U.S.U.U. has been refreshing its position, driven by the AI heat. According to the latest views of Hashdex and CSW, this departure is more of a phased phenomenon, as it relates to the diversion of funds and the bitcoin ' s own cyclical rhythm, respectively.

AI Topic Snuffing funds

Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer of Hashdex, stated in his mid-year outlook that the recent weakness of encrypted assets was more a reflection of investors' investment elsewhere than the deterioration of the digital asset ecology itself. According to him, the current market focus was on AI infrastructure, IPO pipelines and related transactions expected at interest rates, which were absorbing funds that might otherwise flow to the encryption market.

According to Hashdex, this rotation masks some structural changes in the encryption market. Banks, vouchers and payment agencies continue to expand their infrastructure, and the regulatory environment in the United States is clearer than in the previous period. This trend is likely to continue if Congress moves forward with the CARITY Act this summer.

Use on the chain is still growing.

Hashdex also noted that weak prices did not mean simultaneous cooling of activities on the chain. According to the agency, the amount of money transactions that stabilized in the first half of this year has exceeded the total in 2025, the real world assets of monetization has grown by more than 60 per cent during the year, and the number of encrypted ecological transactions has reached a new high in the second quarter.

  • The first half of the year has been more stable than the whole of 2025.
  • The real world has grown by over 60 percent in the year.
  • The number of eco-transactions in the second quarter is record high.

In its view, the current gap between market value performance and chain use is high, and the long-term disconnect between price and network fundamentals is not likely to last for too long.

Rehabilitation after halving is still advancing in the old cycle

Jim Ferraioli, head of research and strategy for financial digitism, explains the weakness of Bitcoin from another angle. In his view, the round of restoration of Bitcoin had been long, but the whole was still close to the market pace after the previous halving. Although many investors had expected that the four-year cycle would be permanently altered by the entry and spot ETF, the historical pattern had not completely failed.

Ferraioli states that bitcoin usually had to wait more than a year in the bear market before re-entering the production cost line for inefficient miners. He currently estimated this level at approximately $95,000. At the same time, the average investor cost is around $80,000, which means that the market may face some pressure to sell when prices rise back close to these zones.

He did not regard the four-year cycle as an absolute rule, but felt that the model had profoundly affected investor expectations. As the Bitcoin market matures and fluctuations decline, the magnitude of each cycle may shrink, but this pattern of behaviour will not be completely eliminated in the short term.