According to external sources, despite William Blair's downward revision of Coinbase's revenue and profit expectations for the next two years, the agency maintained its “run-to-win” rating. The market did not interpret the report as a new space on that day, but instead the Coinbase and Circle stock prices went up, indicating that some investors believed that the pressure had been factored into the valuation earlier.
We'll keep it down.
According to the article, William Blair reduced the expected intake of Coinbase in 2026 by 12 per cent and 2027 by 13 per cent; the adjusted EBITDA expected an average of 34 per cent within two years. However, the Agency determined that Coinbase's profits could be at the bottom in the second half of 2026 and recovered in 2027.
The Agency expects that Coinbase ' s total trade volume will decline by about 44 per cent this year, to $66.9 billion this year and then rebounded by over 32 per cent in 2027. The reason for this is that, unlike in 2022, real bitcoin ETFs, institutional capital inflows and changes in the regulatory environment have created new features in market structures.
Base and derivatives are considered support.
According to the article, Coinbase ' s source of income is no longer based solely on spot transactions. William Blair listed Base 2-tier networks, retail derivatives and forecast markets as potential growth points. Of these, retail derivatives have earned more than $200 million annually in the first quarter of the year.
However, short-term differences remain. Piper Sandler lowers the Coinbase target price from $170 to $155 and maintains a “neutral” rating. The Agency believes that forecasting the market and the renewal of futures will be the main focus of the second quarter, while alerting the market to the competitive pressures surrounding the business of the third quarter of the contract.
Bitcoin has a W-shaped signal.
In addition to stock expectations, the article quotes a technical analyst, John Bollinger. As the founder of the Brink Belt Indicators, he has consistently mentioned since early July that the Bitcoin dailies are forming a “W”-shaped double-floor structure. If that pattern was completed, he believed that it would be an acknowledgement of a change in trend.
The article also mentions that the chain data also shows signs of increase near the June low point. Glassnode recorded that wallets of different sizes were bought at this stage. At the same time, the inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the United States dollar has increased, the relevance to the United States share has diminished and the response to good macrodata has been amplified.
However, according to the article, the sustainability of the rebound remains dependent on the continued presence of spot funds. The current position of derivatives is falling, long-term seller pressure is reduced, and the risk-avoidance premium in the options market is declining, but the off-the-shelf buyout has yet to create a clear and sustained drive.