In the United States, after inflation figures were lower than expected in June, Bitcoin rebounded this week from the vicinity of $6.15 million, approaching $65,000. However, chain data indicate that the market is experiencing simultaneous sales pressure from two groups of currency-holders during a rebound, which may limit the continuation of prices.

Long-term holders begin to leave.

Glassnode, a chain analyst, defines a long-term holder as a wallet address that is usually held for at least five months. The data show that some of the long-term holders who were bought near the last high-rise round are selling bitcoin in their hands, even if they are still in loss.

Such sales usually mean that some of the deep-seated funds do not view the current round increase as a reversal of the trend, but rather as an exit opportunity to reduce losses. According to analysts, this reflects the continued lack of confidence on the part of some long-standing currency holders in the sustainability of the current round.

Short-term holders simultaneously cashing profits

On the other hand, short-term holders who had recently been bought in low places are also selling faster. The report cites an analysis that the current level of profit from this component has exceeded $4 million per day and that the rhythm is close to that of this May round.

At that time, bitcoin briefly rose to the top of the 200-day average, which was followed by increased market pressure. The loss of long-term and short-term holders now occurs at the same time, meaning that more to be digested discards are being accumulated on the market.

  • Long-term holders: less losses in rebound
  • Short-term holders: beginning to realize profits after recent low-value purchases
  • Market outcome: More visible push-down when prices go up

Inflation cooling drives a rebound.

The direct catalyst for this round increase is from United States inflation data. In the United States, the consumer price index rose by 3.5 per cent in June, down from the market expectations of 3.8 per cent, and the core CPI rose by 2.6 per cent in the year after the elimination of food and energy. The producer price index published during the same period was also lower than expected.

After the release of the data, the market’s concern about the continued interest rate hike by the Fed was mitigated, with the dollar index falling back this week, and the United States Treasury debt return going down at the same time, so that the risk assets were supported, with bitcoin clearly rising after Tuesday.

Oil prices and geomorphology remain variable

However, some marketers were cautious about the continuation of the round of rebounds driven by inflation data. According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst of Bitget, the June inflation slowdown was largely driven by a decline in gasoline prices, a trend that had been reversed before the data were released. With the recovery of Brent ' s crude oil and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation in July could re-emerge energy and geo-related factors.

Wintermute's off-site trader, Jasper De Maere, shares the view that, while inflation data themselves are more favourable, the continuation of United States military operations against Iran and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East mean that risk preferences may not have improved steadily. At the same time, although the index of fear and greed has rebounded, it remains in “extreme fear”, indicating that the repair of market sentiment remains limited.