Economists are moving up the United States three-quarter growth forecast until July next year

Economists have revised their forecasts of growth in the United States for the third quarter, reflecting higher expectations for consumer spending and for private investment that includes capital spending in the area of AI. According to the latest monthly economists ' survey, the gross domestic product (GDP) depreciation rate is currently projected to increase by 2.5 per cent in the third quarter, up from 2 per cent projected in the previous survey. The quarterly GDP projections by the end of 2027 have remained almost unchanged and are within a narrow range of 2 - 2.2 per cent. Economists have also barely adjusted their inflation forecasts until the end of next year. The PCI for the elimination of food and energy is expected to average 3.2 per cent this year, followed by a fall of 2.5 per cent throughout 2027. As so-called core PCE price indicators indicate that inflation is slowing, economists expect the Fed to maintain interest rates until the end of July next year. “Technology/Agent intelligence-related investment is a major driver of increased corporate capital spending, while high-income households' expenditure contributes most of the increase in consumer spending,” said James Knightley, Chief International Economist of ING. According to industry research analysts, total capital expenditure associated with artificial intelligence may exceed $1 trillion this year and $1.5 trillion by 2027. In addition, Knightley states: “The cooling down of employment and inflation data, combined with the market's belief that the new Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh's interest rate will be low, has made market pricing less radical and is now considered less than 50 per cent likely to increase in September”. The escalation of the war in Iran poses a risk to the economic outlook, as it could push up oil and consumer prices while at the same time delaying economic growth. As inflation is higher than the Fed ' s target of 2 per cent, it will make the work of policymakers more difficult if supply shocks persist for longer periods. Economists are also expected to lower the average non-farm employment growth this year to 66,000 per month, and expect a similar average monthly employment growth in 2027. "The New Wave"