Greyscale Research Manager: Bitcoin or touched if the Fed does not raise interest Bottom

On 23 July, the Greyscale Research Manager, Zach Pandl, wrote that the market currently had two main points of view: following the “four-year cycle” and treating bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro-factors. According to the four-year cycle, the events of halving the price cycle of Bitcoin remains a central driver. Historically, bitcoin has typically been cut at the bottom by about one year at the top of the cycle and by about 2.5 years, with a cumulative withdrawal of about 80 per cent on average. According to this pattern, the current round of bitcoin could fall further and form the bottom in September or October. Another view was that bitcoin prices would in the future be more affected by economic growth, real interest rates and changes in Federal Reserve policy than other major assets. The past rounds of Bitcoin Bears have usually been accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth or a rise in real interest rates, and the current downturn has also taken place in the context of expected warming and real interest rates at higher rates. Pandl indicates that it is more in agreement with the macro-driven view. If the Fed does not raise interest rates and economic growth remains stable, the price of bitcoin may have reached its bottom。