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Today · 2026-08-03 · Mon

Lyon Securities: AI's concern about the “software extinction” is exaggerated, and the SaaS moat remains strong

On 21 July, in an in-depth thematic report, CLSA noted that, while the rise of artificial intelligence models raised concerns about the subversion of the software industry, the software, SaaS, was far from dying. However, the industry still needs to undergo profound changes before investor confidence returns. “We are surrounded by business details, compliance requirements and information filters managed by software. AI 'vibe-coding ' can dispel all this, and it sounds unrealistic. We found the moats everywhere — the Workflow Directory of Service Now, the marketing links at Saifou, the acoustic precision database, Microsoft's ubiquitous presence, the Human Resources Proficiency of Workday and even Adobe's font library.” The Lyon securities gave Microsoft and Adobe the “Big Disk Run” ratings at a target price of $535 and $300 respectively; Oracle and Saifou were given the “Holding” ratings at a target price of $145 and $165 respectively; and Servicenow and Worldday were given the “Big Disk Run” ratings at a target price of $72 and $92, respectively。

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Agency: More than 700 tankers near the Strait of Hormuz

On 21 July, according to the report of the Maritime Analysis Company Signal Group, there were 728 empty and full-load tankers in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, of which 394 were empty and 334 were full. In the weekly newspaper, Maria Bertzeletou, a senior market analyst, stated that there were 168 empty tankers and 175 full-load tankers in Persian Gulf waters. In the Gulf of Oman, east of the Strait of Hormuz, there are 226 empty tankers and 159 full-load tankers. Since the renewed escalation of tensions on 6 July, the proportion of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz with transparent ownership information has dropped to 45 per cent, compared with 67 per cent during the interim peace agreement period。

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Midday, July 21st

Key words 7:00 to 12:00: Base, US, ants International, Korean Stock Market 1. Reported that the US-Iraq conflict good offices had proposed a ceasefire for 10 days; 2. Korean stock market bond balances had fallen to their lowest level since April; 3. United States officials: Trump would decide within a few days whether to expand the war against Iraq; ants International completed approximately $1.2 billion of A-wheel financing. ants Group, Ali Group, etc. participation; 5. Base Initiative announced the launch of United Coinbase with 1:1 fully asset-supported token shares; 6. Newser: Trump has agreed to incorporate ethical provisions into a broader encrypted currency bill; 7. Flying: Reconstructing the US-based large disk positioning framework to replace “Mag 7” with “clusters” to capture the AI growth narrative。

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Moo: In the second half of the year, the U.S. share or a limited increase of four risks threatens to disrupt the market

On 21 July, a research team led by Zahin Ov, a Senior Fellow at Morgan Chase, wrote that the 500 index could be “more weak” in relation to the international stock market for the remainder of 2026. The report states: “We expect the United States share to rise from its current level, but the return by the end of the year is unlikely to reach the level of the first half of 2026”. The following are some of the main factors that the Bank believes will affect the market during the remainder of 2026: high volatility of changes in bond market structures, high inflation and interest rates, high dissipation to trigger negative feedback, and AI disturbance of employment。

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The US-Iraq ceasefire proposal has emerged and the energy and shipping risk chain remains intact

IRAN RECEIVED A 10-DAY CEASEFIRE PROGRAMME, BUT UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP WARNED IRAN THAT IT WOULD PAY THE PRICE FOR THE DEATH OF UNITED STATES TROOPS. THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ AND MANDE ARE AT RISK AND RELATE TO 4.9 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL PER DAY EXPORTED BY SAUDI ARABIA VIA THE RED SEA. THE PRODUCTION OF THE BLACK SEA CPC OIL TERMINAL WAS HALTED AND ENERGY AND FOOD SUPPLIES WERE HAMPERED. THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE OF NEW YORK, DUDLEY, BELIEVED THAT THE INCREASE IN ENERGY PRICES HAD INCREASED THE PRESSURE ON INTEREST RATES, WHILE MORGAN STANLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE UNITED STATES MONETARY MARKET FUND, WHICH MANAGES MORE THAN $8 TRILLION IN ASSETS, HAS BEEN SHORTENED FOR A LONG TIME, WITH ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT BUY-BACKS AND FLOATING INTEREST RATE BONDS. THE MARKET FOCUSED ON THE 10-DAY CEASEFIRE PROGRAMME RESPONSE, AL-HOUTHI ' S OPERATIONS AGAINST SAUDI SHIPS AND THE RECOVERY OF THE CPC TERMINAL。

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Morgan Chase: Semiconductors are almost oversold, and it's recommended that they be phased in in summer

ON 21 JULY, MORGAN CHASE ' S STOCK STRATEGY REPORT OF 20 JULY STATES THAT THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAVE SEEN A SHARP SALE OF AI-RELATED STOCKS, A 25 PER CENT DROP IN THE SOUTH KOREAN STOCK MARKET, A 20 PER CENT DROP IN PHILADELPHIA ' S SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX, AND A 20 TO 50 PER CENT DROP IN THE SHARES OF SAMSUNG AND AMERICAN LIGHT. THE REPORT ARGUES THAT THE CORE DRIVING FORCE OF THE FALL WAS TECHNICAL AND SILO-FREE, WITH NO DETERIORATION IN THE BASICS. WHILE THE GAP BETWEEN THE RELATIVE PRICE OF SEMICONDUCTORS AND THE TREND OF RELATIVE PROFITABILITY CONTINUES TO WIDEN, THE TIGHT SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE BETWEEN DRAM AND NAND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2028, DRAM SPOT PRICES WILL REMAIN HIGH, AND BEAUTY LIGHT WILL ADJUST PERFORMANCE GUIDELINES TO JUDGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND STRESS AT LEAST UNTIL 2027. THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX, RSI, IS CLOSE TO THE OVERSALE RANGE, AND THE MOMENTUM INCREASE ACCUMULATED DURING THE YEAR IS ESSENTIALLY VOMITING. MORGAN CHASE CONCLUDED THAT THE REBOUND WINDOW WOULD BE OPENED AS SOON AS THE OVERSOLD SIGNAL WAS CONFIRMED, AND SUGGESTED THAT THE INVESTOR WOULD SET THE SEMICONDUCTOR IN A SUMMER BATCH. IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OVER-PROJECTED RATE WAS 97 PER CENT, WITH THE STANDARD 500 OVER-PROJECTED COMPANY WINNING AN AVERAGE OF 1.7 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON THE DAY OF THE DAY. IN TERMS OF CONFIGURATION, MORGAN CHASE INCREASED ITS EQUITY ALLOCATION FROM 60 PER CENT TO 65 PER CENT, THE EURO AREA RATIO FROM 8.7 PER CENT TO 11 PER CENT, OVER-COMPENSATION OF SEMICONDUCTORS, MINING, CAPITAL, AUTOMOBILES, INSURANCE AND BANKING AT THE INDUSTRY LEVEL, LOW-SUPPLEMENT SOFTWARE, BUSINESS SERVICES, MEDIA, ETC. WITH REGARD TO GEO-CONFLICT, THE REPORT FOUND THAT THE “FALL-TO-BUY” STRATEGY SINCE THE END OF MARCH REMAINED VALID。

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After 11 months of silence, a giant whale transferred 9,000 ETHs to Cumberland, worth about $17.19 million

On 21 July, according to Onchain Lens, nearly 11 months later, a giant whale was transferred to Cumberland's wallet with 9,000 ETHs valued at approximately US$ 17.19 million, expected for off-site trading (OTC). Previously, the address had accumulated approximately 50,000 ETHs to FalconX ' s wallet through 13 transactions, with a total value of approximately $205.67 million。

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I'm going to put in the smart Hyra-1.0

On 21 July, Quetzuan announced the launch of the first version of Hyra-1.0. According to the information mixer, this is an intelligent body that can be subordinated to self-improvement, performance-oriented research and engineering tasks. In addition to model development and scientific findings, Hyra also has access to open scenes such as games, design and content creation, based on continuous and iterative strategic products based on self-play, self-evaluation and user feedback. Kim Xian

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SemiAnalysis: 9030 chips for Heath Ribbon in the absence of an EUV machine exceeding the state-of-the-art EUV process in Intel

On 21 July, the leading semiconductor and AI research and analysis company sent a letter indicating that it dismantled China as the latest flagship mobile phone core The smallest lead line spacing - metal spacing - of the cylindrium 9030 chip - was measured under an electron microscope, and the smallest metal spacing of the cylindrium 9030 was found to be 32.5 nm. This is smaller than the metal spacing of the Panther Lake chip based on the Intel ' s latest 18A process. CGI was able to reduce the lead line spacing to about 10 per cent less than the state-of-the-art EUV process in Intel without the most advanced equipment and without the EUV optical carving technology。

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